A new methodology for the analysis of two-dimensional fire spread simulations
نویسنده
چکیده
Technologies now exist to simulate and observe fire spread at spatial resolutions on the order of 30 meters. The FARSITE modeling system recently introduced to the US fire management community provides twodimensional fire spread simulations from a laptop computer, given topography, fuels, and weather information. The quality of the fire spread simulations is subject to examination. This paper describes a new methodology for the error analysis of two-dimensional fire spread simulations, from concurrent observations of actual fire spread. The methodology provides for construction of error bounds on model-based fire perimeter projections, which delimit the area within which the actual fire perimeter will be found at the predicted time, with specified probability. A case study demonstrates the capabilities and performance characteristics of FARSITE in the early stages of a wildfire that occurred in southern California, in summer 1996.
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